Chapter 10: INDUCTIVE REASONING • 93% of Chinese have lactose intolerance. Lee is Chinese. Lee has lactose intolerance. • It has never snowed in Palpa in the last 50 years. It is not going to snow in Palpa this year. • Hari is a sous-chef. Sous-chefs generally have good kitchen skills So, Hari can probably cook well. • These arguments are of course not valid. Lee might be among the 7% of Chinese who can digest lactose. Snow might fall in Palpa this winter due to unusual changes in global weather. But despite the fact that the arguments are invalid, their conclusions are more likely to be true than false given the information in the premises. If the premises are indeed true , it would be rational for us to be highly confident of the conclusion, even if we are not completely certain of their truth. • In other words, it is possible for the premises of an invalid argument to provide strong support for its conclusion. Such arguments are known as